Nigeria’s economy grew by an estimated 3.7% in the first half of 2025, driven mainly by improved business conditions and increased oil production, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global.
This aligns closely with the World Bank’s 2025 growth projection of 3.6%, though it remains below the Central Bank of Nigeria’s forecast of 4.17% and the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s ambitious target of 5.5%.
Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC, explained that the growth reflects stronger crude oil output and steady gains in manufacturing and services, though agricultural growth continues to underperform its long-term average.
Oni also noted that with inflation expected to ease compared to 2024, interest rates are likely to come down by 150–200 basis points in 2025, providing further support for medium-term growth.
- Advertisement -
The PMI report showed that business conditions remained positive for the seventh consecutive month in June, though the pace of expansion slowed for the third month in a row. The headline PMI dropped to 51.6 points in June from 52.7 in May, marking the lowest level in seven months and falling below the 2025 average of 53.1.
Manufacturing output declined, weighing on overall growth, while services and construction continued to expand at a slower pace. Despite the slower growth, business confidence surged to its highest point since August 2022, with companies optimistic about future investments and expansion plans.
Inflationary pressures have begun to soften, with firms raising output prices at the slowest rate in over two years. While manufacturing still faced high input costs, other sectors reported more manageable price increases, helped by steadier raw material costs and supply chains.
