Nigeria’s growth rate too slow to hit $1 trillion economy by 2030 – World Bank

The World Bank has raised concerns over Nigeria’s current economic growth rate, warning that the pace may be too slow for the country to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030.

This warning came through its latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report, titled “Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth.”

The World Bank said that Nigeria would need to grow five times faster than its recent pace to meet this ambitious target.

Although Nigeria recorded a 3.84% GDP growth in Q4 2024 and an annual growth rate of 3.40%—its strongest non-COVID growth since 2015—this still falls short of what is required for a significant poverty reduction and broad-based prosperity.

The report emphasized that it’s not just about growing faster but also growing in a way that benefits more Nigerians. Current growth is driven by sectors like finance and ICT, which, while important, do not create enough jobs for the wider population, especially for youth and low-skilled workers.

For Nigeria to achieve inclusive growth, focus must shift towards sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services targeted at domestic consumption. These sectors are better positioned to create large-scale employment and distribute income more evenly.

The World Bank acknowledged recent reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification. However, it stressed that without deeper structural transformation and improvements in governance, these reforms alone will not be enough to sustain rapid growth.

Economic projections remain modest. The World Bank expects Nigeria’s GDP to grow from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, and slightly to 3.8% by 2026–2027.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast downward to 3.0%, citing challenges like declining oil production and global trade tensions.

To accelerate growth, the World Bank recommended a two-pronged approach: consistent macroeconomic policies from the government, coupled with significant private sector investments, supported by competition reforms and improved infrastructure.